Tracking The Actual US Yield Curve And Term Premium

The 10 year US Treasury since January 2022 has not been the risk free rate 10 year rate. Also a note on the Quarterly Refunding market rigging - it is over.

The roaring economy can not coexist with a inverted to flat US risk free curve. It is an economic impossibility. Therefore the actual risk free rate and curve must be identified if one is the use the yield curve (YC) and resulting term premium (TP), and the YC and the TP is and always was the cornerstone of economic analysis. If the analysis does not have the actual YC and resulting TP, it is impossible to come up with a reasonable forward view on the US economy.

So pragmatically, the first step is the realize how fantastically wrong every economist and resulting media reporting of the economy has been very wrong since January 2022 onwards, not realized until those calls in QI 2022 were in the rear view mirror in 2023 and 2024 and were obviously wrong. The US economy did not slow down, corporate earnings did not crater, and all sectors of the US economy roared on as they started to do upon the fiscal Covid remedy of QII 2020.