Initial claims are problematic, rising more than expected.

Initial claims are always the first mover when a slowdown or recession commences. Initial claims are the most timely and useful economic indicator.

Initial claims usually does not get the close attention that should be paid to this series.

Initial claims are less than a week delay of the state unemployment insurance administrators tally of the prior week total in new unemployment insurance claims payments. Hence “initial”. The tally is very accurately rarely having revisions and is based on hard data. It is a grave federal criminal offense to submit deliberately erroneous data to the Department of Labor and it is also the law that the state agencies are required to submit the data.